When To Go For The Two-Point Conversion and Not Piss Me Off E-mail
Written by MC3 Sports Media   
Tuesday, 10 November 2009 14:18

twopt3Some Background on the Two- Point Conversion Rule

The two-point conversion rule has been used in NCAA Football since 1958. In overtime situations in college football, the two-point conversion is the mandatory method of scoring after a touchdown beginning with the third overtime.

The American Football League used the two-point conversion during its ten seasons from 1960 to 1969. After the NFL merged with the AFL, the rule did not immediately carry over to the merged league. In 1968 they experimented with a "compromise" rule whereby the leagues developed a radical "compromise" rule that would reconcile the fact that the NFL did not recognize the two point conversion but the AFL did: the relatively easy extra point kick would be eliminated and only a play from scrimmage would score one point. The rule was used for the interleague matchups for that preseason, and was never used again.

The NFL adopted the two-point conversion rule in 1994, prompted by its usage in the short-lived USFL.

So they have this rule, it's there... and no one knows how to properly use the darned thing!

The Chart (I hate the chart)

In 1994 when the rule was implemented in the NFL, Mike Holmgren the coach of the Green Bay Packers (yes Brett Favre was the QB back then) had then assistant coaches Steve Mariucci, Andy Reid devise a two-point chart.

Here's the chart. -> -> -> -> -> -> -> -> -> -> -> -> -> ->twopt1

Then over time, we had the rocket scientists come up with what they call a 'Dynamic Program Model' intending to improve on the guidance on when to attempt to a Point Conversion. This chart attempts to take into account the amount of time left in the game. Let me say that it's not a good thing when rocket scientists and football mix. It's kind of like a queer at a Van Halen concert (Listen to this guy).

Here's that chart. > -> -> -> -> -> -> -> -> -> -> -> -> ->twopt2

Still with me? I guess so if you are still reading. Anyway, what the hell is wrong with these NFL coaches? Why can't they comprehend the fact that you never go for two in the middle of the game? The best way I've heard it explained was that the rule of thumb is that you try it when you feel with that there are no more than three possessions are left in the game.

We are half way throw the 2009 season and so far only eight of 26 two-point attempts have been successful this season, or an average of 37 percent. That's down from the 47.9 percent figure the past five seasons.

When you start going for 2 points too early in the game there is no way to account for all the different combinations and permutations of things that can possibly happen and all you are doing is taking a virtual certain 1 point off the board and replacing it with a less than 50% of having two points!

When you start to ‘chase points' too early then you have to start using one of these rocket scientist charts. And once you start chasing points using the chart then you have to keep redoing the math every time there is a score.

These coaches need to throw away these charts and go with their gut feelings. Everything needs to be taken into account, the time left, the weather, the defense you are playing, your ability to move the ball that day, who your defense is playing, etc.

If I'm a GM and I'm interviewing a coach for a head coach's position, the first question I's ask the guy is, "when do you go for two?" If the guy tells be that he goes by a chart I'd kick him in the ass and tell him to get the heck out of my office.

This is football gentlemen. Football is a game of chess, deception, athletic skill, brute strength, and will. If you like to work with mathematical charts, go work for NASA.

If I have to get up out of my chair and yell at the TV because I see one more morn coach go for two before they absolutely have no choice, I am going to........ well I don't know what I'm going to do, but I know I'm going to have a problem with it. - Adam Foster

Adam is a freelance sports writer contributing to various online and print publications for over 12 years.

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