You Don't Know Jack Shit About What A Great NFL QB Is E-mail
Written by MC3 Sports Media   
Thursday, 12 November 2009 08:45

brady2Sports agents are always looking for different metrics to show the value of our their athletes to use during the negotiation process. Xtra Point Football has developed a metric to gauge the worth of NFL QB's. As you follow along here you we see how we assign a value to every NFL QB.

Note: In order to be eligible to be ranked you have to have started at least 16 NFL games or one season's worth.

So who is the best quarterback in the NFL right now? Everyone has their favorite.. Some say Peyton Manning, some say Tom Brady, others say Drew Brees, or Ben Roethlisberger........ take your pick, it's subjective right? Well not really.........

Let's start out with some perspective on the issue. Joe Montana, the guy with all the Superbowls and stuff.... that guy. Joe was 177W - 47L for a winning percentage of 71.34%.

John Elway, you remember him right? Sure you do, one of the best QB's of all time, he could do it all. Elway was 148W - 82L for a winning percentage of 64.35%.

Dan Marino was your guy? Dan was 147W - 93L for a winning percentage of 61.25%

Jim Kelly won a lot of games. He went to four Superbowls in a row right? Jim was 101W - 59L for a winning percentage of 63.13%.

John Unitas. Even if you aren't old enough to have watched him play, if you know anything about football at all you've heard of Johnny U. If you are talking best quarter backs all time he's got to be mentioned too right? Johnny was 118 W - 64 L for a winning percentage of 64.84%.

Here's one that will knock your Aunt Connie's socks off. Who was the New York Jets best quarterback? Joe Namath right? WRONG. Here's a guy that is famous for being a great quarterback that lost more games than he won! Joe Namath was 62W - 63L (and 4 ties). I'm not sure how you count the ties but he only won 49.6% of his games. Chad Penningtion, the guy with the highest completion percentage of all time in the NFL (66.10%) is actually the only NY Jets QB that played for any length of time that had a winning record. (Brett Favre's one year doesn't count) Chad is 45W - 40L as an NFL QB winning 52.94% of his games.

Would anyone have guessed that of all NFL QB's on current rosters that have started a minimum of one full year's worth of games (16), that Kyle Orton has the best winning percentage? Yes that's right, Kyle eff'ing Orton has won an astonishing 79.41% of his games (and that includes a two game losing streak!)

It's not like Orton was on one of these legendary teams that Tom Brady had, running the table going 16-0. Or the famous 49ers teams that Montana had in the 80's. Would you call the Chicago Bears from 2005 - 2008 an All-Time team?

And it's not like the data isn't relevant either, the guy has started more than 2 ½ years worth of games (41). Think about it. If you bet the money line on every one of Kyle Orton's games you would have won 8 out of every 10 bets!

How about Tony Romo. There's a guy who sure catches a lot of shit for someone who has won 67.35% of his games.

Actually, there are only four current NFL QB's that have won more than 70% of their games (in the Montana-sphere). Kyle Orton (79.14%), Tom Brady (78.15%), Ben Roethlisberger (72.15%), and Tony Romo (70.21%).

But wait a minute, how about Brett Favre? Brett has won 176 games, he's got to be up there right? Well, Brett has won 63.54% of his games. Peyton Manning, 67.93.

Think about it, if you are an NFL QB that wins 62.5% of your games, you are averaging 10 wins per year and in the playoffs just about every single year. If you are around that number, you are a very good QB. If you are anything higher, you are superb.

You can forget the all the stats, the only thing that matters is if you won the game. You can throw for 400 yards and lose the game. I's rather have the guy who threw for 220, managed the game, didn't turn it over and won the game.

So with that in mind, let's take a look at who the best quarterbacks in the NFL really are. Who are the QB's whose teams win more often than not when they play.

bestqb

Now obviously, winning football games has more to do with just the QB. If the team with the best QB always won the game then Montana, Elway and Untias would have won every week.

Now we all agree that a QB that can win 62% of their games over a 100 game period is more proven, more reliable, more likely to be able to replicate that winning percentage again than someone who has done it over 20 games. Like with anything else, the more data you have, the more predictable the outcome is. With that in mind the following formula for evaluating the historical performance or QB's has been developed.

Winning percentage multiplied by the number of games over .500 or ((Win%) x (# of Wins +.500)) = Best QB.

The only way to do this fairly is to include a QB's playoff history into the overall calculation. I understand and agree that those games are more important however you need to win games to get to the playoffs and the reality is it's the same game with the same rules against teams that in most instances you've played before. It's not like you are all of a sudden playing a team from the CFL.

These rankings are concrete, not debatable in any way. If you have a difference of opinion, I'm correct and you're not. Don't bother e-mailing or waste your time with a comment unless you are going to tell me you agree because if you don't agree, you simply don't know Jack Shit about what a great NFL QB is.

So that's it. There are the top QB's in the NFL today. There is obviously a group up there at the top that is head and shoulders above the rest. There's Brady, than there's Favre and Manning, then Roethlisburger and McNabb and it scales from there.

We will re-rank the QB's at the beginning of every season to see where we stand. This ranking is now the standard and I will certainly be pushing to use this metric of calculating a QB's worth when negotiating contracts for our clients (if it's in their best interest to bring it up .....) - Keith A. Baker

Keith A. Baker is a sports agent in Stamford, Connecticut. His goal is to offer a unique insight to the world of sports. Comments in his columns are for entertainment purposes only and do not reflect the views and opinions of his firm or his client.

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Comments (2)Add Comment
You're Close, but No Cigar.
written by Ketch Rudder, November 12, 2009
You step in the right direction with your formula, but your formula suffers.

You could improve it.

I have a better way at it's soon to be published on the Gridiron Grotto @ http://gridirongrotto.blogspot.com .

What you want to do is ascertain a QB's contribution to winning and his not contributing to losing. A ranking of that ratio for all QBs shows the QBs from the best to the worst.

Without ratio (putting data in context), you get false numbers and hence false beliefs.
He Definately Gets A Cigar
written by Bob Faulkner, November 13, 2009
Ketch – You know not what you speak of. Blake is dead on.

Trying to add more factors into the formula only dilutes the most important fact of “do they win the games.”

While taking turnovers into account certainly gives you insight into how a QB may perform, that’s already taken into account in this formula. It would not make a difference if Jay Cutler threw 5 INT’s last not, as long as he was able to stick it in the endzone on the last drive and win the game.

Brett Favre is turnover prone, but history has shown that he can win the games despite that. In Cutler’s case that’s not true and that’s why he’s now 4 games under .500 and way down on this list.

The formula of what percentage of the games they win + how often they are able to replicate at that percentage is the absolute best way to go about it. Kudos to Blake for hitting the nail on the head.

The only factor not taken into account (or so I thought) is the player’s age / health / physical ability as he gets older. But when I asked Blake about that he told me that a simple graph over time of the QB Value will let you know when the fine line as to when Peyton Manning’s years of experience no longer becomes an asset and become a liability because he’s physically no longer able to deliver the ball where his brain tells his arm to throw it. The plotting of the graph will start to show the players QB Value going down. So in hindsight he’s taken that into account as well

A perfect example is Brett Favre, he’s still winning at his career QB value rate and thus his QB value when plotted remains high. When the QB value starts to descend, it’s time for him to seek a rocking chair. Until then, he can be expected to play well.

It’s a brilliant formula that’s also simple. Basically, it doesn’t matter how the game gets won, but with that individual at QB, how likely is the team to win.

Think about it, Kyle Orton is more likely to win NFL games as a starting QB than Drew Brees and he hasn’t been on kick-ass teams! That may sound silly, but based on history, Orton has done whatever it took to win the close game (that can also mean he has simply not done something – like turn the ball over in a crucial spot) while Brees has not. A QB has to manage the game based on the team around him. The fact that you can put up huge stats doesn’t matter if you end up with less points in the end.

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