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Rain is expected to continue into Saturday morning, when the teams will conduct final walkthroughs, but stop by midday. No more precipitation is scheduled for the area until Wednesday.
Temperatures will be in the 50s on Saturday night, move into the 60s during Sunday and back into the 50s for game-time, helping to dry the field and create good conditions for a pair of teams that rely on players with quick bursts of speed such as Reggie Wayne and Reggie Bush.
Odds makers have the Super Bowl XLIV over / under as high as 57 points heading into the weekend. The Colts are currently 4.5-point favorites.
The last time the Colts were in the Super Bowl was three years ago, when the game was also in Miami, and played in a steady rain for the first time in history. The weather did not seem to significantly impact the Colts, who amassed 430 total yards in a 29-17 win over the Chicago Bears that however Peyton Manning was quoted after the game and again this week as saying that he thought he was effect by the rain. Peyton was 25/38 for 247 yards in Super Bowl XLI.
Super Bowl VIII between the Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings at Rice Stadium in Houston had some intermittent drizzle but no heavy rain.
Outdoor games are not common for either the Colts or Saints, both of whom play their home games in climate-controlled domes. However, both teams won games at Miami during the regular season. In Week 2, the Colts had the ball for less than 15 minutes but made the most of it and Peyton Manning hit a pair of long touchdown passes in a 27-23 win over the Dolphins as 3-point favorites in a Monday night game.
In Week 7, the Saints dug themselves a 24-3 hole in the second quarter but stormed back for a 46-34 win over the Dolphins as 6-point favorites in a late afternoon Sunday game, overcoming a season-high three interceptions by Drew Brees.
The Colts played just five outdoor games during the season, with road contests at Arizona, St. Louis and Houston. They won and covered the first four before resting their regulars for most of a 30-7 loss at Buffalo in the regular-season finale.
It was 12 degrees for the game in Buffalo but at least 56 degrees for each of their other outdoor contests.
The Saints also played six outdoor games, with two of their road contests at domes in St. Louis and Atlanta. They were 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread, escaping with a 33-30 win at Washington as 9-point favorites in Week 13 and losing 23-10 at Carolina as 10-point underdogs in Week 17, when they also rested their starters.
It was 36 degrees for the game in Washington and 30 degrees for the contest in Carolina. All of their other road games were at least 64 degrees.
In summary, neither the weather nor the field should be a factor in Super Bowl XLIV. The Colts defense is faster and better than most people give them credit for. Dwight Freeney could be a big loss, even if he plays he couldn't possibly be the same speed rusher that he's noted to be, but they've played without him before and found ways to win.
All things being equal, the Colts should win this game however Reggie Bush is expected to have something to say about that. If Bush has a quality special teams performance providing excellent field position in the all important "hidden yardage game" that could be enough to make the difference.
While I would suggest talking the Colts is the safer way to go, I would play the money line and sacrifice the later payout potential as I would be afraid of a back door cover here by Drew Brees and the Saints. - Robert Finley
Bob has been covering college and pro football as an "interested party" for over 20 years. He's pretty darn good at it too......
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